To DJ, Or Not to DJ?
Written By: AJ Bhuller
Image retrieved from TSN.ca
It’s been a confusing time for Senators fans. Confusing start to the season in fact. First, we lost the first game of the season, after playing a solid road game in Carolina. Then three convincing wins, where the team looked unbeatable. We wondered; would this team lose again? We got a quick answer as we lost the next three games versus Detroit, Buffalo and the Islanders, teams we should probably beat. After some losing to start November, because you know… November SENS and all, we seem to have righted the ship during the Global Series in Sweden. But back-to-back overtime wins have not calmed the fan base. Somehow we weren’t completely satisfied with the way we got four points in Sweden.
The System
Senators fans are not convinced or have faith in the system the team plays or lack thereof. Personally, I have been conflicted on this. I heard the fire DJ chants, I am sure we all have, including DJ himself. I won’t express my opinion on this if it's wrong or right, other than, fans can chant what they want when they want. Should DJ Smith be on the hot seat, and should a change take place as soon as possible? I am not 100 percent sure which way I stand. But I will try to explain what goes through my brain when I have this internal conflict. First off, I do believe there is a system and the reason it's not working is both on the players and the coach. What is this system? What we do know, and this is a shock to no one, is offensively the Senators want to be a hard-nosed dump-and-chase team. Defensively, they seem to want to be a team that forces everything to the outside and holds teams one and done. DJ has always said the best defence is to have the puck more than the other team.
When It’s Not Working
What’s happening when it's not working? Why can the team look so good when it is? I think if we could fully answer these questions, we should probably put down the PS5 remote and apply for coaching jobs in the NHL. Let’s keep this simple, without analytics because it is easy to see. The dump and chase offensively are not working because while the team does a great job dumping the puck in (and a lot), they aren’t chasing down the puck with the tenacity required for this system to work. For example, a team that has mastered the dump and chase is the Carolina Hurricanes. They are successful in this tactic by dumping the puck in and chasing it hard. Coming in with speed and putting punishing hit after punishing hit on the defenders. It's an opportunistic system that relies on defencemen eventually second-guessing at the threat of being hit and hit hard. This suits the Hurricane roster well, as they are lacking true star power. You could easily argue this iteration of the Senators has a more talented roster. When the Senators dump the puck in, there is no semblance of aggression or tenacity, not all the time. Exhibit A (and he isn’t the only one) is Drake Batherson. When he is doing his best, he is finishing checks hard and he is having success because it works within our system. At times, you will see Tkachuk and to a lesser extent, Stützle finish their checks to get the puck back. The reason Mathieu Joseph is having a good year is because he is using this to his advantage. Defensively, it's simple, the team is not moving as a five-man group and the forwards are breaking out of the zone too early for our defensemen to properly defend. The forwards are breaking out of the zone even when pucks are less than 50/50.
When It’s Working
This year is too small a sample size to make a fair comparison, but we are going to compare nonetheless. Compared to this season, in 2022-2023, during five-on-five play, we were better in almost every analytical category. We were ahead in Corsi For %, the percent of scoring in the team’s favour, and nearly seven percent better in high-danger scoring chances. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but remember, in the pros, it’s a game of inches. The good teams and the bad teams are not separated by a significant margin. The bottom line is this team has played well under this same coaching staff and “system”. Not only have they played well for stretches, but during that time, they have looked good doing it and carried play against good teams. This is what has me torn, when the team looks good on the ice, the vibes are high off the ice, and this is a result of good coaching and good culture. The human side of me appreciates good people and DJ Smith is a great person. He has shown this in the locker room and within the Ottawa community, and shouldn’t that matter? Even a little?
The Verdict
What does all this mean and what should happen? On one side, you could easily convince yourself, that the season is young and being 8-7 in the standings near the end of November is okay. The team loves DJ and he loves the team right back. Maybe we give him some time to regain the form from down the stretch last season. On the other hand (and this is a popular one) the system is not working for this current roster, not consistently. And whether it's squarely on DJ’s shoulders or not, a change is needed. To have a new voice, to implement a new system, to refresh things before it's too late. Is it getting too late? Has the losing gone on for too long? You could easily convince me. My final point and it's as simple as simple can be. This team really has not had an identity in the last few years. Working hard or outworking isn’t an identity, it's a given in the NHL. This team doesn’t have a definitive go-to identity each night and that is on the coaching staff.
But let’s take a step back and enjoy a little as well. The team has won three games in a row. If a few select members of the Team at Sens Talk are to be believed, The Sweden Curse may have been lifted! There are good things happening around the team and things seem to be looking up. Let it look up! The team found a way to get four points in Sweden in games we have found a way to lose in the past.
